Ngo-2023, abantu abangu-153 bafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane we-dengue eKerala, okubalwa u-32% wabantu abafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane we-dengue eNdiya. I-Bihar iyisifundazwe esinesibalo sesibili esiphezulu sabantu abafa ngenxa yomkhuhlane we-dengue, kanti kubikwe ukufa okungu-74 kuphela, okungaphansi kwengxenye yesibalo saseKerala. Ngonyaka odlule, isazi sezulu uRoxy Mathew Call, owayesebenza kumodeli yokubikezela ubhubhane lwe-dengue, waya esikhulwini esiphezulu saseKerala ecela uxhaso lwalo msebenzi. Ithimba lakhe e-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) lisungule imodeli efanayo yePune. UDkt. Khil, isazi sezulu e-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), uthe, "Lokhu kuzozuzisa kakhulu umnyango wezempilo waseKerala njengoba kuzosiza ekuqapheni ngokucophelela nasekuthatheni izinyathelo zokuvimbela ukwenzeka kwezifo."
Konke akunikezwayo kwakuyikheli le-imeyili elisemthethweni loMqondisi Wezempilo Yomphakathi kanye nePhini LoMqondisi Wezempilo Yomphakathi. Naphezu kwama-imeyili okukhumbuza kanye nemiyalezo yombhalo, akukho datha enikeziwe.
Lokhu kuyasebenza nasemininingwaneni yemvula. “Ngokubona okulungile, izibikezelo ezifanele, izixwayiso ezifanele kanye nezinqubomgomo ezifanele, izimpilo eziningi zingasindiswa,” kusho uDkt. Cole, othole umklomelo wesayensi ophakeme kunayo yonke eNdiya kulo nyaka, iVigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologist Award. Wethule inkulumo enesihloko esithi 'Isimo Sezulu: Yini elengayo' eManorama Conclave eThiruvananthapuram ngoLwesihlanu.
UDkt. Cole uthe ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, iWestern Ghats kanye noLwandle lwase-Arabia kuzo zombili izinhlangothi zeKerala sekufana nodeveli nolwandle. “Isimo sezulu asishintshi nje kuphela, sishintsha ngokushesha,” esho. Isixazululo kuphela, esho, ukudala iKerala enobungani nemvelo. “Kufanele sigxile ezingeni le-panchayat. Imigwaqo, izikole, izindlu, ezinye izikhungo kanye nomhlaba wezolimo kumele kuhambisane nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu,” esho.
Okokuqala, uthe, iKerala kufanele idale inethiwekhi yokuqapha isimo sezulu ebanzi futhi ephumelelayo. Ngomhlaka-30 Julayi, usuku lokudilika komhlaba eWayanad, uMnyango Wezulu waseNdiya (IMD) kanye neKerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) bakhiphe amamephu amabili ahlukene okulinganisa imvula. Ngokusho kwemephu ye-KSDMA, iWayanad ithole imvula enkulu kakhulu (ngaphezu kuka-115mm) kanye nemvula enkulu ngomhlaka-30 Julayi, nokho, i-IMD inikeza ukufundwa okune okuhlukene kweWayanad: imvula enkulu kakhulu, imvula enkulu, imvula ephakathi nendawo kanye nemvula encane;
Ngokusho kwemephu ye-IMD, izifunda eziningi eThiruvananthapuram naseKollam zithole imvula encane kakhulu, kodwa i-KSDMA ibike ukuthi lezi zifunda ezimbili zithole imvula ephakathi nendawo. “Asikwazi ukubekezelela lokho kulezi zinsuku. Kumelwe sakhe inethiwekhi yokuqapha isimo sezulu eKerala ukuze siqonde ngokunembile futhi sibikezele isimo sezulu,” kusho uDkt. Kohl. “Le datha kufanele itholakale emphakathini,” esho.
EKerala kunesikole njalo ngamakhilomitha amathathu. Lezi zikole zingahlonyiswa ngemishini yokulawula isimo sezulu. “Isikole ngasinye singahlonyiswa ngama-rain gauge nama-thermometer ukuze kulinganiswe izinga lokushisa. Ngo-2018, isikole esisodwa saqapha amazinga emvula namanzi eMfuleni iMeenachil futhi sasindisa imindeni engama-60 emfuleni ngokubikezela izikhukhula,” kusho yena.
Ngokufanayo, izikole zingasebenzisa amandla elanga futhi zibe namathangi okuqoqa amanzi emvula. “Ngale ndlela, abafundi ngeke bazi nje ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, kodwa futhi bazokulungiselela,” kusho yena. Idatha yabo izoba yingxenye yenethiwekhi yokuqapha.
Kodwa-ke, ukubikezela izikhukhula ezisheshayo kanye nokudilika komhlaba kudinga ukubambisana kanye nokubambisana kweminyango eminingana, njenge-geology kanye ne-hydrology, ukuze kudalwe amamodeli. “Singakwenza lokhu,” kusho yena.
Njalo eminyakeni eyishumi, amamitha angu-17 omhlaba ayalahleka. UDkt. Cole we-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology uthe amazinga olwandle akhuphuke ngamamilimitha angu-3 ngonyaka kusukela ngo-1980, noma amasentimitha angu-3 ngeshumi leminyaka. Uthe yize kubonakala kuncane, uma umthambeka ungama-degree angu-0.1 kuphela, amamitha angu-17 omhlaba azoguguleka. “Yindaba efanayo endala. Ngo-2050, amazinga olwandle azokhuphuka ngamamilimitha angu-5 ngonyaka,” esho.
Ngokufanayo, kusukela ngo-1980, inani leziphepho likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-50 kanti isikhathi sazo sikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-80, kusho yena. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, inani lemvula enkulu liphindwe kathathu. Uthe ngo-2050, imvula izokhuphuka ngo-10% kuwo wonke amazinga okushisa e-Celsius.
Umthelela Wokushintsha Kokusetshenziswa Komhlaba Ucwaningo olwenziwe eTrivandrum's Urban Heat Island (UHI) (igama elisetshenziselwa ukuchaza izindawo zasemadolobheni ezifudumele kunezindawo zasemakhaya) luthole ukuthi amazinga okushisa ezindaweni ezakhiwe noma emahlathini aqinile angakhuphuka afike ku-30.82 degrees Celsius uma kuqhathaniswa no-25.92 degrees Celsius. ngo-1988 - ukwenyuka cishe kwama-degrees ama-5 eminyakeni engama-34.
Ucwaningo olwethulwe nguDkt. Cole lubonise ukuthi ezindaweni ezivulekile izinga lokushisa lizokhuphuka lisuka ku-25.92 degrees Celsius ngo-1988 liye ku-26.8 degrees Celsius ngo-2022. Ezindaweni ezinezitshalo, izinga lokushisa lenyuka lisuka ku-26.61 degrees Celsius laya ku-30.82 degrees Celsius ngo-2022, okuwukwenyuka kwama-degrees angu-4.21.
Izinga lokushisa lamanzi laqoshwa kuma-degree Celsius angu-25.21, liphansi kancane kunezinga lokushisa lama-degree Celsius angu-25.66 eliqoshwe ngo-1988, izinga lokushisa lalingama-degree Celsius angu-24.33;
UDkt. Cole uthe amazinga okushisa aphezulu naphansi esiqhingini esishisayo senhloko-dolobha nawo akhula kancane kancane phakathi naleso sikhathi. “Izinguquko ezinjalo ekusetshenzisweni komhlaba zingenza umhlaba ube sengozini yokuguguleka komhlaba kanye nezikhukhula ezinkulu,” kusho yena.
UDkt. Cole uthe ukubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kudinga isu elinezici ezimbili: ukunciphisa kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo. “Ukunciphisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu manje sekungaphezu kwamandla ethu. Lokhu kumele kwenziwe ezingeni lomhlaba wonke. IKerala kufanele igxile ekuzivumelaniseni nezimo. I-KSDMA ithole izindawo ezishisayo. Nikeza imishini yokulawula isimo sezulu kuwo wonke ama-panchayat,” kusho yena.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba-23-2024