Ngo-2023, abantu abayi-153 babulawa umkhuhlane wodenga eKerala, okubalelwa ku-32% wokufa kodenga eNdiya. I-Bihar iyisifundazwe esinesibalo sesibili esiphezulu sabantu ababulawa udenga, kanti kubikwe ukuthi bangu-74 kuphela abantu ababulawa udenga, ngaphansi kwengxenye yesibalo saseKerala. Ngonyaka odlule, usosayensi wesimo sezulu uRoxy Mathew Call, owayesebenza ngemodeli yokubikezela ukuqubuka kodenga, waya kumphathintambo wezempilo waseKerala ecela uxhaso lwemali yalolu hlelo. Ithimba lakhe e-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) lenze imodeli efanayo ye-Pune. UDkt Khil, usosayensi wesimo sezulu e-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), uthe, "Lokhu kuzowuzuzisa kakhulu umnyango wezempilo eKerala njengoba kuzosiza ekuqapheni ngokucophelela nasekuthatheni izinyathelo zokuvikela ukuvela kwezifo." umphathi we-nodal.
Konke akunikezwa kwakungamakheli e-imeyili asemthethweni oMqondisi Wezempilo Yomphakathi kanye nePhini Lomqondisi Wezempilo Yomphakathi. Naphezu kwama-imeyili esikhumbuzi nemilayezo yombhalo, ayikho idatha enikeziwe.
Okufanayo kuyasebenza nakudatha yemvula. "Ngokubhekwa okufanele, izibikezelo ezifanele, izixwayiso ezifanele kanye nezinqubomgomo ezifanele, izimpilo eziningi zingasindiswa," kusho uDkt Cole, othole umklomelo wesayensi ophakeme kakhulu waseNdiya kulo nyaka, i-Vigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologist Award. Wethule inkulumo enesihloko esithi 'Isimo Sezulu: Yini elenga esilinganisweni' eManorama Conclave eThiruvananthapuram ngoLwesihlanu.
UDkt Cole uthe ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, iWestern Ghats kanye noLwandle lwase-Arabia nhlangothi zombili zeKerala sekufana nodeveli nezilwandle. “Isimo sezulu asigcini nje ngokushintsha, sishintsha ngokushesha,” kusho yena. Isixazululo esisodwa, uthe, ukudala i-Kerala enobungani bemvelo. "Kumele sigxile ezingeni le-panchayat. Imigwaqo, izikole, izindlu, ezinye izinsiza kanye nomhlaba wokulima kumele kuhambisane nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu," esho.
Okokuqala, uthe, iKerala kufanele yakhe inethiwekhi yokuqapha isimo sezulu eminyene futhi ephumelelayo. Ngomhla zingama-30 kuJulayi, usuku lokudilika kwenhlabathi kwe-Wayanad, uMnyango Wezemvelo wase-India (IMD) kanye Neziphathimandla Zokulawulwa Kwezinhlekelele Zesifunda sase-Kerala (KSDMA) zikhiphe amamephu amabili ahlukene okulinganisa imvula. Ngokusho kwemephu ye-KSDMA, i-Wayanad ithole imvula enamandla kakhulu (ngaphezu kuka-115mm) kanye nezimvula ezinamandla ngoJulayi 30, nokho, i-IMD inikeza ukufundwa okune okuhlukene kwe-Wayanad: imvula enkulu kakhulu, imvula enkulu, imvula emaphakathi nemvula encane;
Ngokusho kwemephu ye-IMD, izifunda eziningi e-Thiruvananthapuram nase-Kollam zithole imvula encane kakhulu, kodwa i-KSDMA ibike ukuthi lezi zifunda ezimbili zithole imvula emaphakathi. "Ngeke sikubekezelele lokho kulezi zinsuku. Kumele sakhe inethiwekhi yokuqapha isimo sezulu e-Kerala ukuze siqonde kahle futhi sibikezele isimo sezulu," kusho uDkt Kohl. "Le datha kufanele itholakale esidlangalaleni," esho.
E-Kerala kunesikole njalo ngamakhilomitha ama-3. Lezi zikole zingahlonyiswa ngemishini yokulawula isimo sezulu. "Isikole ngasinye singahlonyiswa ngamageji emvula nama-thermometers ukukala izinga lokushisa. Ngo-2018, isikole esisodwa saqapha izinga lemvula namanzi emfuleni i-Meenachil futhi sasindisa imindeni engu-60 ezansi nomfula ngokubikezela izikhukhula," esho.
Ngokufanayo, izikole zinganikwa amandla elanga futhi zibe namathangi okuvuna amanzi emvula. “Ngale ndlela, abafundi ngeke bazi ngokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphela, kodwa bazozilungiselela,” usho kanje. Idatha yabo izoba yingxenye yenethiwekhi yokuqapha.
Kodwa-ke, ukubikezela izikhukhula nokudilika kwenhlabathi kudinga ukudidiyelwa nokusebenzisana kweminyango eminingana, njenge-geology kanye ne-hydrology, ukuze kwakhiwe amamodeli. “Singakwenza lokhu,” kusho yena.
Njalo eshumini leminyaka, kulahleka amamitha angu-17 omhlaba. UDkt Cole we-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology uthe amazinga olwandle anyuke ngamamilimitha amathathu ngonyaka kusukela ngo-1980, noma amasentimitha amathathu eshumini ngalinye. Uthe nakuba kubonakala kuncane kodwa uma umqansa ungama-degree angu-0.1 nje, umhlaba ongamamitha angu-17 uzoguguleka. "Kuyindaba efanayo endala. Ngo-2050, amanzi olwandle azokhuphuka ngamamilimitha amahlanu ngonyaka," esho.
Ngokufanayo, kusukela ngo-1980, inani leziphepho liye lenyuka ngamaphesenti angu-50 kanti ubude bazo ngamaphesenti angu-80, esho. Ngalesi sikhathi, inani lemvula enkulu liphindeke kathathu. Uthe ngo-2050 imvula izokwenyuka ngo-10% kuwo wonke ama-degree Celsius enyuka izinga lokushisa.
Umthelela Wokushintsha Kokusetshenziswa Komhlaba Ucwaningo lwe-Trivandrum's Urban Heat Island (UHI) (igama elisetshenziselwa ukuchaza izindawo zasemadolobheni ezifudumele kunezindawo zasemaphandleni) lithole ukuthi amazinga okushisa ezindaweni ezakhiwe noma emahlathini aphathekayo angakhuphuka afike ku-30. 82 degrees Celsius uma kuqhathaniswa no-25.92 degrees Celsius. ngo-1988 - ukweqa cishe ama-degree angu-5 eminyakeni engu-34.
Ucwaningo olwethulwa uDkt Cole lubonise ukuthi ezindaweni ezivulekile izinga lokushisa lizokhuphuka lisuka ku-25.92 degrees Celsius ngo-1988 liye ku-26.8 degrees Celsius ngo-2022. Ezindaweni ezinohlaza, izinga lokushisa lenyuka lisuka ku-26.61 degrees Celsius ngo-2022, ukugxuma kuka-4.21 degrees.
Izinga lokushisa lamanzi laqoshwa ku-25.21 degrees Celsius, lingaphansi kancane kune-25.66 degrees Celsius alotshwe ngo-1988, izinga lokushisa lalingu-24,33 degrees Celsius;
UDkt Cole uthe amazinga okushisa aphezulu naphansi esiqhingini esishisayo senhloko-dolobha nawo anda kancane ngalesi sikhathi. “Ushintsho olunjalo ekusetshenzisweni komhlaba lungenza umhlaba ube sengozini yokubhidlika komhlaba nezikhukhula,” usho kanje.
UDkt Cole uthe ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kudinga isu elinezinhlangothi ezimbili: ukunciphisa kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo. "Ukunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu manje kungaphezu kwamandla ethu. Lokhu kumele kwenziwe emhlabeni jikelele. I-Kerala kufanele igxile ekuzivumelaniseni nezimo. I-KSDMA ihlonze izindawo ezishisayo. Nikeza imishini yokulawula isimo sezulu kuwo wonke ama-panchayat," esho.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-23-2024