Izinguquko eziqhutshwa yisimo sezulu emanzini ahlanzekile zibonakaliswe ukuthi zithinta ukwakheka nomsebenzi wezinto eziphilayo zasogwini. Sihlole izinguquko emathonyeni okugeleza komfula ezinhlelweni zasogwini lwaseNyakatho-ntshonalanga yePatagonia (NWP) emashumini eminyaka amuva nje (1993–2021) ngokuhlaziywa okuhlanganisiwe kochungechunge lwesikhathi sokugeleza kokugeleza, ukulingisa kwe-hydrological, idatha etholwe ngesathelayithi kanye nokuhlaziywa kabusha kwezimo zolwandle (izinga lokushisa, ukushuba, nosawoti). Ukuncipha okuphawulekayo kokugeleza okuncane okunqamula indawo ehlanganisa imifula emikhulu eyisithupha kube sobala esikalini samasonto onke, nyanga zonke, kanye nezinkathi ezithile zonyaka. Lezi zinguquko zigqame kakhulu ezigodini ezisenyakatho zombuso oxubile (isb, uMfula i-Puelo) kodwa zibonakala ziqhubekela phambili eningizimu emifuleni ebonakala ngombuso we-nival. Ezindaweni eziseduze zolwandle olungaphakathi olunezendlalelo ezimbili, okokufaka kwamanzi ahlanzekile ancishisiwe kuhambisana ne-halocline engashoni kanye nezinga lokushisa elikhuphukayo endaweni esenyakatho yePatagonia. Imiphumela yethu igcizelela ithonya elivela ngokushesha lemifula emanzini aseduze komfula kanye namanzi ogwini ku-NWP. Sigqamisa isidingo sokubheka imvelo enqamulayo, ukubikezela, amasu okunciphisa kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo esimweni sezulu esishintshayo, kanye nokuphathwa okuhambisanayo kwemigodi yezinhlelo ezihlinzeka ngamanzi agelezayo emanzini asogwini.
Imifula iwumthombo oyinhloko wokufakwa kwamanzi ahlanzekile ezwekazini olwandle1. Ezinhlelweni zasogwini ezivalekile kancane, imifula iwumshayeli obalulekile wezinqubo zokujikeleza2 kanye nebhuloho eliphakathi kwezindawo eziphila emhlabeni kanye nezasolwandle, ukuthutha imisoco, izinto eziphilayo, kanye nezinsalela ezengeza lezo ezivela ogwini nolwandle oluvulekile3. Ucwaningo lwakamuva lubike izinguquko kumthamo kanye nesikhathi sokufakwa kwamanzi ahlanzekile olwandle olwandle4. Ukuhlaziywa kochungechunge lwesikhathi kanye namamodeli we-hydrological abonisa amaphethini e-spatiotemporal ahlukene5, kusukela, isibonelo, kusukela ekwenyukeni okunamandla kwamanzi ahlanzekile ezindaweni eziphakeme kakhulu6-ngenxa yokwanda kokuncibilika kweqhwa-kuya ekuncipheni kwezitayela maphakathi ne-latitude ngenxa yokwanda kwesomiso samanzi7. Ngaphandle kokuqondisa nobukhulu bezitayela ezisanda kubikwa, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuhlonzwe njengokuyimbangela enkulu yezinguquko eziphathelene nokusetshenziswa kwamanzi8, kuyilapho imithelela emanzini asogwini kanye nezinhlelo zemvelo ezizisekelayo kusafanele zihlolwe futhi ziqondwe ngokugcwele9. Izinguquko zesikhashana ekugelezeni kokugeleza, okuthonywa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu (ukushintsha amaphethini emvula namazinga okushisa akhuphukayo) kanye nezingcindezi ze-anthropogenic ezifana namadamu aphehla ugesi ngamanzi noma amachibi10,11, ukuphambukisa ngenkasa, nokushintsha kokusetshenziswa komhlaba12, kubangela inselele ekuhlaziyeni izitayela emanzini ahlanzekile13,14. Isibonelo, ucwaningo oluningana lubonise ukuthi izindawo ezinokwehlukahlukana okuphezulu kwamahlathi zibonisa ukuqina okukhulu kwe-ecosystem phakathi nesomiso kunalezo ezibuswa amasimu amahlathi noma ezolimo15,16. Phakathi nendawo, ukuqonda imithelela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esizayo olwandle ogwini ngokuhlukanisa imithelela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuphazamiseka kwendawo ye-anthropogenic kudinga ukubhekwa ezinhlelweni ezibhekisela kuzo ezinoshintsho olulinganiselwe ukuze izinguquko kuhulumeni we-hydrological zihlukaniswe nokuphazamiseka kwabantu kwendawo.
I-Western Patagonia (> 41°S ogwini lwasePacific eNingizimu Melika) ivela njengenye yalezi zifunda ezilondolozwe kahle, lapho ucwaningo oluqhubekayo lubalulekile ukuze kuqashwe futhi kuvikelwe lezi zinhlelo zemvelo. Kulesi sifunda, imifula egeleza ngokukhululekile isebenzisana ne-geomorphology yasogwini eyinkimbinkimbi ukuze ilolonge enye yezindawo ezibanzi kakhulu ze-macro-estuary emhlabeni17,18. Ngenxa yokuba kude kwazo, izizinda zemifula yasePatagonia zihlala zingaphazamiseki ngendlela ephawulekayo, zinezinga eliphezulu lehlathi lendabuko19, ukuminyana kwabantu okuphansi, futhi ngokuvamile azinawo amadamu, amadamu, nengqalasizinda yokuchelela. Ukuba sengozini kwalezi zimiso zemvelo zasogwini ekushintsheni kwemvelo kuncike kakhulu, ngokwesandiso, ekusebenzelaneni kwazo nemithombo yamanzi ahlanzekile. Ukufakwa kwamanzi ahlanzekile emanzini asogwini lwaseNyakatho-ntshonalanga yePatagonia (NWP; 41–46 ºS), okuhlanganisa imvula eqondile nokugeleza kwemifula, kusebenzisana nobuningi bamanzi olwandle, ikakhulukazi usawoti omningi we-Subantarctic Water (SAAW). Lokhu kuphinde kube nomthelela kumaphethini okujikeleza kwegazi, ukuvuselelwa kwamanzi, kanye nokungena komoya20 ngokwenziwa kwezinga eliqinile likasawoti, ngezinga eliphakeme lokuhlukahluka kwesizini kanye nokuhlukahluka kwendawo ku-halocline21. Ukusebenzisana phakathi kwale mithombo yamanzi emibili kuphinde kube nomthelela ekwakhiweni kwemiphakathi ye-planktonic22, kuthinta ukuncipha kokukhanya23, futhi kuholela ekuncipheni kokugxila kweNitrogen nePhosphorus ku-SAAW24 kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwe-orthosilicate okuthuthukisiwe endaweni engaphezulu25,26. Ngaphezu kwalokho, okokufaka kwamanzi ahlanzekile kubangela i-gradient eqinile eqondile ye-oxygen encibilikile (DO) kulawa manzi omfula, ungqimba olungaphezulu luvame ukubonisa ukugxiliswa okuphezulu kwe-DO (6–8 mL L-1)27.
Ukungenelela okulinganiselwe okubonisa izizinda zezwekazi lasePatagonia kuphambene nokusetshenziswa kakhulu kogu, ikakhulukazi imboni yezokulima emanzini, umkhakha wezomnotho obalulekile eChile. Njengamanje ikleliswe phakathi kwabakhiqizi abaphezulu bezilwane zasemanzini emhlabeni, i-Chile ingeyesibili ngobukhulu emazweni angaphandle kwama-salmon nama-trout, futhi ithengisa izimbaza kwamanye amazwe28. Ukulima kwe-salmon nezimbaza, okwamanje okuthatha cishe. Iziza zemvume ezingama-2300 ezinendawo ephelele ye-ca. Amahektha angama-24,000 esifundeni, akhiqiza inani elikhulu lezomnotho eningizimu yeChile29. Le ntuthuko ayinayo imithelela yemvelo, ikakhulukazi endabeni yokulima ama-salmon, umsebenzi onikela ngemisoco yangaphandle kulezi zinhlelo zemvelo30. Iphinde yaboniswa ukuthi isengozini kakhulu ekushintsheni okuhlobene nesimo sezulu31,32.
Emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, ucwaningo olwenziwe ku-NWP lubike ukwehla kwamanzi ahlanzekile33 futhi lwaveza ukwehla kokugeleza kwamanzi ehlobo nasekwindla34, kanye nokwandiswa kwesomiso samanzi35. Lezi zinguquko kokokufaka kwamanzi ahlanzekile zithonya amapharamitha akhona emvelo futhi zibe nemiphumela edabukisayo ku-dynamics ye-ecosystem ebanzi. Isibonelo, izimo ezimbi kakhulu emanzini asogwini ngesikhathi sesomiso sasehlobo-ekwindla sezivame kakhulu, futhi, kwezinye izimo, zibe nomthelela embonini ye-aquaculture nge-hypoxia36, ukwanda kwe-parasitism, kanye ne-algal blooms eyingozi32,37,38 (HABs).
Emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, ucwaningo olwenziwe ku-NWP lubike ukwehla kwamanzi ahlanzekile33 futhi lwaveza ukwehla kokugeleza kwamanzi ehlobo nasekwindla34, kanye nokwandiswa kwesomiso samanzi35. Lezi zinguquko kokokufaka kwamanzi ahlanzekile zithonya amapharamitha akhona emvelo futhi zibe nemiphumela edabukisayo ku-dynamics ye-ecosystem ebanzi. Isibonelo, izimo ezimbi kakhulu emanzini asogwini ngesikhathi sesomiso sasehlobo-ekwindla sezivame kakhulu, futhi, kwezinye izimo, zibe nomthelela embonini ye-aquaculture nge-hypoxia36, ukwanda kwe-parasitism, kanye ne-algal blooms eyingozi32,37,38 (HABs).
Ulwazi lwamanje ngokuncipha kokokufaka kwamanzi ahlanzekile kuyo yonke i-NWP lusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwe-hydrological metrics39, echaza izici zezibalo noma eziguquguqukayo zochungechunge lwedatha ye-hydrologic etholakala enanini elilinganiselwe lamarekhodi esikhathi eside kanye nokufakwa kwendawo okuncane. Ngokuqondene nezimo ezihambisanayo ze-hydrographic emanzini omfula we-NWP noma ulwandle olusogwini oluseduze, awekho amarekhodi esikhathi eside atholakala endaweni. Uma kubhekwa ubungozi bemisebenzi yenhlalo-mnotho yasogwini emithelelaneni yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ukwamukela indlela ebanzi yokuhlanganisa umhlaba nolwandle ekulawuleni kanye nokuzivumelanisa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kubalulekile40. Ukubhekana nale nselelo, sihlanganise imodeli ye-hydrological (1990-2020) nedatha etholakala kwisathelayithi kanye nehlaziywa kabusha ngezimo zolwandle (1993-2020). Le ndlela inezinjongo ezimbili eziyinhloko: (1) ukuhlola ukuthambekela komlando kumamethrikhi we-hydrological esikalini sesifunda kanye (2) nokuhlola imithelela yalezi zinguquko ohlelweni oluseduze logu, ikakhulukazi mayelana nosawoti ongaphezulu kolwandle, izinga lokushisa, kanye ne-turbidity.
Singahlinzeka ngezinhlobo ezahlukene zezinzwa ezihlakaniphile zokuqapha i-hydrology kanye nekhwalithi yamanzi, wamukelekile ukubonisana.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-18-2024