Abstract
Inkinga yokugeleza nenhlabathi ingenye yezinto ezibalulekile ezithinta ukusebenza kokuthunyelwa kanye nempilo ye-Three Gorges Project (TGP). Kusetshenziswe izindlela eziningi zokucwaninga ukugeleza nezinkinga zenhlabathi ye-TGP ngesikhathi sokuboniswa kwayo, ukuhlela, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa nokusebenza, futhi imiphumela eminingi ebalulekile itholakele. Ukuze uqonde inqubekelaphambili yokugeleza nokukalwa kwenhlabathi kumaphrojekthi amele i-China kanye nolwazi lokubhekwa kwenhlabathi emanzini amakhulu kakhulu, ukugeleza nokukalwa kwenhlabathi kwe-TGP kwethulwa kakhulu kuleli phepha. Kufaka phakathi isimo esijwayelekile se-TGP, ukusatshalaliswa kwenethiwekhi yesiteshi samanzi, izici zokulinganisa, ubuchwepheshe obusha bokulinganisa, kanye nezinguquko zenhlabathi echibini kanye naphansi komfula ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP. Imiphumela yokukalwa kwenhlabathi ibonisa ukuthi isimo esiyisisekelo sezinkinga zenhlabathi sihle, futhi lezi zinkinga zenhlabathi zingase ziqongelele, zithuthuke, futhi ziguquke ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngakho kufanele zinakwe ngokuqhubekayo.
1 ISINGENISO
I-Three Gorges Project (TGP) iphrojekthi enkulu kunazo zonke yokongiwa kwamanzi kanye namandla aphehlwa ngamanzi emhlabeni. Idamu liseSandouping, eDolobheni lase-Yichang, eSifundazweni saseHubei, okuwumugqa ohlukanisayo phakathi komfudlana ophakathi nendawo naphezulu komfudlana wesiqu soMfula i-Yangtze. Ilawula indawo yokudonsa amanzi eyisigidi esingu-1 km2, kanti isilinganiso samanzi esigelezayo ngonyaka sifinyelela ku-451,000 million m3. Ngomthamo wokugcina wezikhukhula wama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22.15, le phrojekthi idlala indima enkulu ekulawuleni izikhukhula zomfula waseYangtze. Ngezinga elijwayelekile elivalekile lamamitha ayi-175, isamba somthamo wokugcina wechibi singama-39,300 kanye nezigidi ezingama-22,150 m3 waso amandla okulawula izikhukhula. Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-TGP kugxile ekuvimbeleni izikhukhula, ukukhiqizwa kukagesi, kanye nezinzuzo zokuthutha emanzini. Izophinde ithuthukise indawo ezungezile. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinzuzo eziphelele eziphathelene nokulawulwa kwezikhukhula, ukuhamba ngemikhumbi, ukukhiqizwa kukagesi, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemithombo yamanzi zanikezwa.
Njengengxenye ebalulekile yohlelo lokulawula izikhukhula ezindaweni ezimaphakathi neziphansi zoMfula i-Yangtze, i-TGP ilawula u-96% wokugeleza okuya eMfuleni i-Jingjiang, ingxenye yomfula oyingozi kakhulu phakathi nezikhukhula, kanye nangaphezu kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zokungena e-Wuhan. I-TGP idlala indima ebalulekile ekwehliseni izikhukhula kanye nasekunciphiseni izikhukhula ezinkulu ezindaweni eziphakeme zoMfula i-Yangtze. Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, idamu lase libambe amanzi angama-cubic metres angu-180 billion ngezikhathi zezikhukhula. Ibone ukungena kwama-cubic metres angaphezu kuka-70,000 ngomzuzwana ngo-2010, 2012 futhi yehlisa iziqongo zezikhukhula cishe ngama-40%, okwehlisa kakhulu ukucindezela kokulawula izikhukhula ezindaweni ezisezansi nomfula. Ngezikhathi zonyaka ezomile, ukukhishwa kuye kwakhushulwa kwaba ngaphezu kwama-cubic metres angu-5500 ngomzuzwana, okuhlinzeka ngamanzi angaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-20 zama-cubic metres ngonyaka ezindaweni ezimaphakathi neziphansi zoMfula iYangtze.
Ukubhekwa kwesibonelo kwenzelwa ukusebenzela ucwaningo lwenhlabathi, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza kwe-TGP esikhathini esihlukile. Izilinganiso ze-prototype zasetshenziswa ukuze kuhlaziywe ukuhluka kokugeleza nokugcwala kwentlenga kumzila oyinhloko woMfula i-Yangtze, kanye nezinguquko nokuvela komfula. Ukusatshalaliswa kwezindawo kuboniswa kuMfanekiso 1. Imiphumela yamanje yokubhekwa ngokuyisisekelo ihambisana nesigaba socwaningo okungenzeka (Lu & Huang, 2013), kodwa ngenxa yokuncipha kwenhlabathi ekhuphuka nomfula kanye nokwakhiwa kwamachibi amanzi emfuleni i-Jinsha ngemva kweminyaka yawo-1990, ukucwiliswa kwenhlabathi kwe-Three Gorges endaweni encane (i-TGR) ibe mincane kakhulu kunangaphambili. amandla kanye nebanga lokuguguleka komfula ezansi nomfula we-TGP.
2 UHLELO LWENEWEKHI YE-HYDROLOGIC NOHLELO LOKULINGANISA
Ukuqoqa idatha eyisisekelo kanye nokuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokwakha ubunjiniyela bamachibi, iKhomishini Yezinsiza Zamanzi yase-Changjiang kancane kancane isungule iziteshi eziningi ze-hydrological eduze nomfudlana omkhulu nemingenela yoMfula i-Yangtze kusukela ngawo-1950. Ngawo-1990, inethiwekhi yesiteshi se-hydrological ephelele kanye nenethiwekhi yokuqapha inhlabathi kwase kwakhiwa. Ihlanganisa iziteshi ze-hydrological 118 kanye neziteshi zokukala ezingaphezu kuka-350. Ukwengeza, inani elikhulu lokuhlola umfula kanye nomsebenzi wokuhlaziya inhlabathi usuphothuliwe. Idatha yokubona amanzi kanye nenzika yamashumi eminyaka edlule ezizukulwaneni ezimbalwa inikeze isisekelo sesayensi sokubonisa, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza kwe-TGP.
Ukubhekwa kwesibonelo kwenzelwa ukusebenzela ucwaningo lwenhlabathi, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza kwe-TGR esikhathini esihlukile. Ngemuva kokuthi indawo yokugcina amanzi iqale ukugcinwa kwayo ngo-2003, inkinga yenhlabathi yavela phezulu naphansi, futhi ukubhekwa kwesibonelo kanye nocwaningo lwenzinga oluhambisanayo lwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ukusebenza kwe-TGP ngokuqondile. Umgomo wokubheka uhlanganisa lezi zici ezilandelayo: Ukuphatha kahle idatha yasemuva yesimo sesiteshi semvelo ngaphambi kokuvala ngokuphelele; Ukwenza ireferensi ngesinqumo sohlelo lokuvala isitolimende; ukuqapha ngesikhathi sangempela ukuguquguquka kokuguguleka komhlabathi kanye nokubekwa ezindaweni ezingaphezulu neziphansi ngemuva kokuvalelwa, nokuthola izinkinga, ukuze kuthathwe izinyathelo zokulwa ngesikhathi; ukuqinisekisa ubuchwepheshe bokulingisa obamukelwe, nokukhulisa ukwethembeka kokubikezela kwenhlabathi ye-TGP.
Uhla lokubhekwa kwe-hydrological sediment prototype luhlanganisa indawo yedamu, indawo yedamu, kanye nokufinyelela okuphansi. Kusukela ngo-1949, ngokusekelwe esilinganisweni senhlabathi sesikhathi eside, ukubhekwa kwesiteshi, nokuhlola nophenyo, idatha eminingi yokubhekwa kwesibonelo kanye nemiphumela yocwaningo lokuhlaziya iye yanqwabelana, ngaleyo ndlela yahlangabezana nesidingo sokuhlela, ukuklama kanye nocwaningo lwesayensi esigabeni sokuchazwa. Isigaba sokwakha singesesikhashana ukuze kuphumelele i-prophase, futhi isikhathi esiphelele sokwakha singu-17a, ngakho-ke kuyadingeka ukubheka ngokuqhubekayo ukugeleza kwamanzi, inzika, nesimo somngcele. Lokhu akuhlinzeki kuphela ukuncika ekwakhiweni, ucwaningo lwesayensi, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza, kodwa futhi nokuqinisekisa kanye nokwenza kahle kokuklama nokulawula.
Izinto zokuqapha zihlanganisa ngokuyinhloko i-hydrology, i-sediment, kanye ne-channel terrain. Inhlolovo yendawo yesiteshi ngokuyinhloko iwukuthola ukujwayela kokuvela kweshaneli eluhlaza, ukumiswa kwenhlabathi echibini, ukuguguleka komfula, kanye nokuvela kokhiye okufinyelelwayo ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP.
2 UHLELO LWENEWEKHI YE-HYDROLOGIC NOHLELO LOKULINGANISA
Ukuqoqa idatha eyisisekelo kanye nokuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zokwakha ubunjiniyela bamachibi, iKhomishini Yezinsiza Zamanzi yase-Changjiang kancane kancane isungule iziteshi eziningi ze-hydrological eduze nomfudlana omkhulu nemingenela yoMfula i-Yangtze kusukela ngawo-1950. Ngawo-1990, inethiwekhi yesiteshi se-hydrological ephelele kanye nenethiwekhi yokuqapha inhlabathi kwase kwakhiwa. Ihlanganisa iziteshi ze-hydrological 118 kanye neziteshi zokukala ezingaphezu kuka-350. Ukwengeza, inani elikhulu lokuhlola umfula kanye nomsebenzi wokuhlaziya inhlabathi usuphothuliwe. Idatha yokubona amanzi kanye nenzika yamashumi eminyaka edlule ezizukulwaneni ezimbalwa inikeze isisekelo sesayensi sokubonisa, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza kwe-TGP.
Ukubhekwa kwesibonelo kwenzelwa ukusebenzela ucwaningo lwenhlabathi, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza kwe-TGR esikhathini esihlukile. Ngemuva kokuthi indawo yokugcina amanzi iqale ukugcinwa kwayo ngo-2003, inkinga yenhlabathi yavela phezulu naphansi, futhi ukubhekwa kwesibonelo kanye nocwaningo lwenzinga oluhambisanayo lwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ukusebenza kwe-TGP ngokuqondile. Umgomo wokubheka uhlanganisa lezi zici ezilandelayo: Ukuphatha kahle idatha yasemuva yesimo sesiteshi semvelo ngaphambi kokuvala ngokuphelele; Ukwenza ireferensi ngesinqumo sohlelo lokuvala isitolimende; ukuqapha ngesikhathi sangempela ukuguquguquka kokuguguleka komhlabathi kanye nokubekwa ezindaweni ezingaphezulu neziphansi ngemuva kokuvalelwa, nokuthola izinkinga, ukuze kuthathwe izinyathelo zokulwa ngesikhathi; ukuqinisekisa ubuchwepheshe bokulingisa obamukelwe, nokukhulisa ukwethembeka kokubikezela kwenhlabathi ye-TGP.
Uhla lokubhekwa kwe-hydrological sediment prototype luhlanganisa indawo yedamu, indawo yedamu, kanye nokufinyelela okuphansi. Kusukela ngo-1949, ngokusekelwe esilinganisweni senhlabathi sesikhathi eside, ukubhekwa kwesiteshi, nokuhlola nophenyo, idatha eminingi yokubhekwa kwesibonelo kanye nemiphumela yocwaningo lokuhlaziya iye yanqwabelana, ngaleyo ndlela yahlangabezana nesidingo sokuhlela, ukuklama kanye nocwaningo lwesayensi esigabeni sokuchazwa. Isigaba sokwakha singesesikhashana ukuze kuphumelele i-prophase, futhi isikhathi esiphelele sokwakha singu-17a, ngakho-ke kuyadingeka ukubheka ngokuqhubekayo ukugeleza kwamanzi, inzika, nesimo somngcele. Lokhu akuhlinzeki kuphela ukuncika ekwakhiweni, ucwaningo lwesayensi, ukwakhiwa, nokusebenza, kodwa futhi nokuqinisekisa kanye nokwenza kahle kokuklama nokulawula.
Izinto zokuqapha zihlanganisa ngokuyinhloko i-hydrology, i-sediment, kanye ne-channel terrain. Inhlolovo yendawo yesiteshi ngokuyinhloko iwukuthola ukujwayela kokuvela kweshaneli eluhlaza, ukumiswa kwenhlabathi echibini, ukuguguleka komfula, kanye nokuvela kokhiye okufinyelelwayo ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP.
Inzwa yejubane lokugeleza kwamanzi eradar yezimo ezifana ne-DAMS, iziteshi ezivulekile, namanethiwekhi amapayipi angaphansi komhlaba, ingaqapha idatha ngesikhathi sangempela.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-04-2024