Isifinyezo
Inkinga yokugeleza kanye nodaka ingenye yezinto ezibalulekile ezithinta ukusebenza kokuthunyelwa kanye nokuphila kweProjekthi Yemigodi Emithathu (i-TGP). Izindlela eziningi zisetshenziswe ukucwaninga ngezinkinga zokugeleza kanye nodaka lwe-TGP ngesikhathi sokuboniswa kwayo, ukuhlela, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa kanye nokusebenza, futhi kutholakale imiphumela eminingi ebalulekile. Ukuze kuqondwe inqubekela phambili yokulinganiswa kokugeleza kanye nodaka kumaphrojekthi amele iShayina kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kokubuka udaka ezindaweni zokugcina amanzi ezinkulu kakhulu, ukulinganiswa kokugeleza kanye nodaka lwe-TGP kwethulwa kakhulu kuleli phepha. Kuhlanganisa isimo esijwayelekile se-TGP, ukusatshalaliswa kwenethiwekhi yesiteshi samanzi, izici zokulinganisa, ubuchwepheshe obusha bokulinganisa, kanye nezinguquko zodaka endaweni yokugcina amanzi kanye nangaphansi komfula ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP. Imiphumela yokulinganisa udaka ikhombisa ukuthi isimo esiyisisekelo sezinkinga zodaka sihle, futhi lezi zinkinga zodaka zingase ziqongelelane, zithuthuke, futhi zishintshe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngakho-ke kufanele zinakwe njalo.
1 ISINGENISO
Iphrojekthi yeMigodi Emithathu (i-TGP) yiphrojekthi enkulu kunazo zonke yokongiwa kwamanzi kanye namandla okusebenzisa amanzi emhlabeni. Idamu liseSandouping, eDolobheni laseYichang, eSifundazweni saseHubei, okuwumugqa ohlukanisa phakathi komfula ophakathi nendawo ongaphezulu komfula omkhulu woMfula iYangtze. Lilawula indawo yokugeleza kwamanzi engu-1 million km2, kanti umthamo wamanzi ogeleza minyaka yonke ufinyelela ku-451,000 million m3. Njengoba inomthamo wokugcina izikhukhula ongu-22.15 billion cubic metres, iphrojekthi idlala indima enkulu ekulawulweni kwezikhukhula kwesitsha soMfula iYangtze. Njengoba inezinga elijwayelekile lokubanjwa elingu-175 m, umthamo wokugcina wonke wedamu ungama-39,300 kanti u-22,150 million m3 walo ungumthamo wokulawula izikhukhula. Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-TGP kugxile ekuvimbeleni izikhukhula, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla, kanye nezinzuzo zokuhamba ngamanzi. Kuzophinde kuthuthukise indawo ezungezile. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, kwalethwa izinzuzo eziphelele mayelana nokulawulwa kwezikhukhula, ukuhamba, ukukhiqizwa kwamandla, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemithombo yamanzi.
Njengengxenye ebalulekile yesistimu yokulawula izikhukhula ezindaweni eziphakathi nezingezansi zoMfula iYangtze, i-TGP ilawula u-96% wokungena koMfula iJingjiang, ingxenye yomfula eyingozi kakhulu ngesikhathi sezikhukhula, kanye nezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zokungena koMfula iWuhan. I-TGP idlala indima ebalulekile ekunciphiseni izikhukhula kanye nokunciphisa izikhukhula ezinkulu ezindaweni eziphezulu zoMfula iYangtze. Ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, idamu lase libambe amanzi angama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyi-180 ngesikhathi sezikhukhula. Labona ukungena kwamanzi angaphezu kwama-cubic metres angu-70,000 ngomzuzwana ngo-2010, 2012 futhi lanciphisa iziqongo zezikhukhula cishe ngo-40%, okunciphisa kakhulu ingcindezi yokulawula izikhukhula ezindaweni ezingezansi komfula. Ngesikhathi sezomile, ukuphuma kwamanzi kukhushulwe kwaya ngaphezu kwama-cubic metres angu-5500 ngomzuzwana, okuhlinzeka ngamanzi angaphezu kwama-cubic metres ayizigidi eziyi-20 ngonyaka ezindaweni eziphakathi nezingezansi zoMfula iYangtze.
Ukuqashelwa kwesibonelo kwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ucwaningo lwesediment, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza kwe-TGP esikhathini esihlukile. Ukulinganiswa kwesibonelo kusetshenziswe ukuhlaziya ukwehluka kokugeleza kwamanzi kanye nomthwalo wesediment emseleni omkhulu woMfula iYangtze, kanye nezinguquko kanye nokuvela kogu lomfula. Ukusatshalaliswa kwezindawo kuboniswe kuMfanekiso 1. Imiphumela yokuqashelwa kwamanje ihambisana nesigaba sokutadisha ukuthi kungenzeka yini (Lu & Huang, 2013), kodwa ngenxa yokuncipha kwesediment ephezulu kanye nokwakhiwa kwamadamu e-cascade eMfuleni iJinsha ngemuva kweminyaka yama-1990, ukugcwala kwesediment ye-Three Gorges (TGR) kuncane kakhulu kunangaphambili, okuholela ekuqineni okukhulu kanye nebanga lokuguguleka kogu lomfula phansi kwe-TGP.
2 UKWAKHIWA KWENETHIWEKI YE-HYDROLOGIC NESIMI SOKULINGANISA
Ukuze kuqoqwe idatha eyisisekelo futhi kuhlinzekwe ngezinsizakalo zokwakha ubunjiniyela bezitsha, iKhomishini Yezinsiza Zamanzi yaseChangjiang iye yasungula kancane kancane inani elikhulu leziteshi zamanzi eduze komfula omkhulu kanye nemifula yoMfula iYangtze kusukela ngawo-1950. Ngawo-1990, inethiwekhi ephelele yeziteshi zamanzi kanye nenethiwekhi yokuqapha indle yayisivele yakhiwe. Ihlanganisa iziteshi zamanzi ezingu-118 kanye neziteshi zokulinganisa ezingaphezu kuka-350. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inani elikhulu lomsebenzi wokuhlola umfula kanye nokuhlaziya indle usuqediwe. Idatha yokubuka indle kanye nendle yamashumi eminyaka adlule ezizukulwaneni eziningana inikeze isisekelo sesayensi sokuboniswa, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza kwe-TGP.
Ukuqashelwa kwesibonelo kwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ucwaningo lwe-sediment, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza kwe-TGR esikhathini esihlukile. Ngemva kokuba idamu liqale ukugcina ngo-2003, inkinga ye-sediment yavela kokubili ezindaweni eziphezulu neziphansi, kanti ukuqashelwa kwesibonelo kanye nocwaningo lwe-sediment oluhambisanayo kwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ukusebenza kwe-TGP ngqo. Umgomo wokuqashelwa uhlanganisa izici ezilandelayo: Ukuqonda idatha yangemuva yesimo sesiteshi semvelo ngaphambi kokubopha ngokuphelele; Ukwenza inkomba yesinqumo sohlelo lokubopha ngezigaba; ukuqapha ngesikhathi sangempela ukushintshashintsha kokuguguleka kanye nokufakwa kokubili ezindaweni eziphezulu neziphansi ngemva kokubopha, nokuthola izinkinga, ukuze kuthathwe izinyathelo zokumelana ngesikhathi; ukuqinisekisa ubuchwepheshe bokulingisa obamukelwe, kanye nokwandisa ukuthembeka kokubikezela kwe-sediment ye-TGP.
Uhla lokubuka i-prototype ye-hydrological sediment luhlanganisa indawo yesitsha, indawo yedamu, kanye nezindawo eziphansi. Kusukela ngo-1949, ngokusekelwe ekulinganisweni kwe-sediment kwesikhathi eside, ukubonwa kwesiteshi, kanye nokuhlola nokuhlola, idatha eminingi yokubuka i-prototype kanye nemiphumela yocwaningo lokuhlaziya yayiqoqwe, ngaleyo ndlela ihlangabezana nesidingo sokuhlela, ukuklama kanye nocwaningo lwesayensi esigabeni sokuchaza. Isigaba sokwakha singesikhashana sokulandela i-prophase, futhi isikhathi sokwakha singu-17a, ngakho-ke kuyadingeka ukuqhubeka nokubuka ukugeleza kokushintshashintsha, i-sediment, kanye nesimo somngcele. Lokhu akugcini nje ngokuhlinzeka ngokuthembela ekwakhiweni, ocwaningweni lwesayensi, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza, kodwa futhi nasekuqinisekisweni kanye nokwenza ngcono umklamo kanye nomthethonqubo.
Izici zokuqapha zifaka phakathi i-hydrology, i-sediment, kanye nendawo yesiteshi. Ukuhlolwa kwendawo yesiteshi kuhloswe kakhulu ukuthola ukuvela njalo kwesiteshi endaweni eluhlaza, ukufakwa kwe-sediment edamini, ukuguguleka phansi komfula, kanye nokuvela kwezindawo ezibalulekile ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP.
2 UKWAKHIWA KWENETHIWEKI YE-HYDROLOGIC NESIMI SOKULINGANISA
Ukuze kuqoqwe idatha eyisisekelo futhi kuhlinzekwe ngezinsizakalo zokwakha ubunjiniyela bezitsha, iKhomishini Yezinsiza Zamanzi yaseChangjiang iye yasungula kancane kancane inani elikhulu leziteshi zamanzi eduze komfula omkhulu kanye nemifula yoMfula iYangtze kusukela ngawo-1950. Ngawo-1990, inethiwekhi ephelele yeziteshi zamanzi kanye nenethiwekhi yokuqapha indle yayisivele yakhiwe. Ihlanganisa iziteshi zamanzi ezingu-118 kanye neziteshi zokulinganisa ezingaphezu kuka-350. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inani elikhulu lomsebenzi wokuhlola umfula kanye nokuhlaziya indle usuqediwe. Idatha yokubuka indle kanye nendle yamashumi eminyaka adlule ezizukulwaneni eziningana inikeze isisekelo sesayensi sokuboniswa, ukuklama, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza kwe-TGP.
Ukuqashelwa kwesibonelo kwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ucwaningo lwe-sediment, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza kwe-TGR esikhathini esihlukile. Ngemva kokuba idamu liqale ukugcina ngo-2003, inkinga ye-sediment yavela kokubili ezindaweni eziphezulu neziphansi, kanti ukuqashelwa kwesibonelo kanye nocwaningo lwe-sediment oluhambisanayo kwenziwa ukuze kusetshenziswe ukusebenza kwe-TGP ngqo. Umgomo wokuqashelwa uhlanganisa izici ezilandelayo: Ukuqonda idatha yangemuva yesimo sesiteshi semvelo ngaphambi kokubopha ngokuphelele; Ukwenza inkomba yesinqumo sohlelo lokubopha ngezigaba; ukuqapha ngesikhathi sangempela ukushintshashintsha kokuguguleka kanye nokufakwa kokubili ezindaweni eziphezulu neziphansi ngemva kokubopha, nokuthola izinkinga, ukuze kuthathwe izinyathelo zokumelana ngesikhathi; ukuqinisekisa ubuchwepheshe bokulingisa obamukelwe, kanye nokwandisa ukuthembeka kokubikezela kwe-sediment ye-TGP.
Uhla lokubuka i-prototype ye-hydrological sediment luhlanganisa indawo yesitsha, indawo yedamu, kanye nezindawo eziphansi. Kusukela ngo-1949, ngokusekelwe ekulinganisweni kwe-sediment kwesikhathi eside, ukubonwa kwesiteshi, kanye nokuhlola nokuhlola, idatha eminingi yokubuka i-prototype kanye nemiphumela yocwaningo lokuhlaziya yayiqoqwe, ngaleyo ndlela ihlangabezana nesidingo sokuhlela, ukuklama kanye nocwaningo lwesayensi esigabeni sokuchaza. Isigaba sokwakha singesikhashana sokulandela i-prophase, futhi isikhathi sokwakha singu-17a, ngakho-ke kuyadingeka ukuqhubeka nokubuka ukugeleza kokushintshashintsha, i-sediment, kanye nesimo somngcele. Lokhu akugcini nje ngokuhlinzeka ngokuthembela ekwakhiweni, ocwaningweni lwesayensi, ukwakhiwa, kanye nokusebenza, kodwa futhi nasekuqinisekisweni kanye nokwenza ngcono umklamo kanye nomthethonqubo.
Izici zokuqapha zifaka phakathi i-hydrology, i-sediment, kanye nendawo yesiteshi. Ukuhlolwa kwendawo yesiteshi kuhloswe kakhulu ukuthola ukuvela njalo kwesiteshi endaweni eluhlaza, ukufakwa kwe-sediment edamini, ukuguguleka phansi komfula, kanye nokuvela kwezindawo ezibalulekile ngemva kokuboshwa kwe-TGP.
Inzwa yesivinini sokugeleza kwezinga lamanzi e-radar yezimo ezifana nama-DAMS, iziteshi ezivulekile, kanye namanethiwekhi amapayipi angaphansi komhlaba, ingaqapha idatha ngesikhathi sangempela.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-04-2024